Predicting the Future
It’s that time of year again where the top ten lists for the old year spurt out of pundits’ pens along with generally wrong prognostication predictions (that is “guesses”) for the next year.
I’m not very good at either figuring out which recent changes are most significant (I’ll bet the iPhone was one) or predicting what will happen during my day tomorrow, much less 365 days in the future.
But I’m not too bad at looking at the state of technology – especially in government – and wishing for what I’d like to see in the near future.
And here they are:
- government (including its workers) embracing the cloud,
- more women in tech,
- police body-worn video cameras,
- video recognition software and
- last, but most important, wise elected officials.
Government Embracing the Cloud
Embracing the Cloud
Cloud services are the “next hot thing” in technology. Or they were the next thing hot thing in 2010.
Jeff Bezos of Amazon – along with a number of other technology leaders – believes that very few private companies and governments will operate their own data centers in the future. This is undeniably true simply because cloud service providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) have a tremendous economy of scale. AWS probably has more than five million servers worldwide. Every day – 365 days a year – Amazon Web Services installs more server capacity than the entire Amazon e-tailing enterprise had online in 2004. And AWS has won notable contracts, such as the contract to operate the CIA’s data center.
Seattle has become a hotbed of cloud technology over the past 18 months. The Seattle area has a number of the major players in this space such as Amazon, Microsoft Azure, CenturyLink, Google, and now even Dropbox and Apple. The list includes a number of “niche” companies such as Taser International’s Evidence.com which supports cloud hosting of law enforcement data such as body-worn video data and Socrata, the leading cloud service for government open data.
Yet governments have been slow to adopt cloud technologies. Governments continue to build and operate their own data centers, containing a few hundred servers, and operate much less efficiently than cloud services providers. While some governments use cloud services such as Accela for permitting, Workday for human resources, and Socrata for open data, most applications continue to live in expensive government-owned data centers operated by government employees.
Part of the reason government is slow to adopt the cloud is perceived security concerns: unless the applications data are on disk arrays and servers which government CIOs can touch and feel and see behind the doors of their very own data centers, these officials feel that, somehow, the hackers will get to them. This concern is patently absurd, as cloud providers such as Microsoft and Amazon can afford to employ hundreds of security professionals compared to the handful in most governments.
Another problem is potential loss of jobs for workers who presently staff government data centers. However governments badly need employees who will adapt new technologies for government businesses, who will code new web applications and apps for consumers and businesses to better do business with the government. Government agencies are chronically short of such developers who, by the way, make a lot more money than data center operators and server administrators. A retraining program for such government technology employees coupled with a move to the cloud will benefit everyone – taxpayers, businesses, government officials and tech employees.
It’s long past time for a wholesale move of government technology to cloud services.
More Women Coders and Women in Technology
Grace Hopper, Inventor of COBOL
I recently had the chance to visit a cloud services development company in the Seattle area. The company had a variety of very leading edge practices, such as small team environments, self-directed teams, and superior compensation. They bragged about their employee interview process: they accepted about 1% of the people who applied or were recruited.
The place was entirely white and Asian-American men. Well, there was a woman at the front desk.
Now, perhaps it is true that only young males have the interest and ambition to pursue coding. But having an all young-white-male environment in any business anywhere is not good, for a whole variety of reasons: all-male business cultures give rise to frat-house-like cultures such as apparently happened at Zillow. With incomes stagnant or dropping for middle-income people, coding and app development are one of the few areas with tremendous growth in skills and wages – it is important this growth be shared by people of all genders. Seattle, in particular, seems to have the widest pay gap between women and men.
There are probably many reasons for this disparity. Perhaps our educational system needs to better emphasize technology careers for girls. Maybe we need more tech savvy teachers in general, so we don’t have to import so much tech talent via the H1B visa program. And we certainly need to embrace programs such as the “hour of code” evangelized by Seattle’s code-dot-org.
In fact, linking this problem back to the one above (governments’ need to embrace the cloud), perhaps we should start with an hour of code for all government workers – not just information technology workers, mind you, but ALL government workers.
Ubiquitous Use of Police Body Cams
Body Worn Video Camera (sort of) courtesy Go-Pro
President Obama’s December 1 announcement of funding for equipping 50,000 police officers with body-worn video is an innovative approach to improving public safety. This initiative follows several tragic events such as those in Ferguson, Missouri. Certainly the idea of recording most police-citizen interactions is appealing.
In a time of polarization about the role of the police in our communities, the use of body-worn video cameras seems to have universal support. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) dislikes video surveillance in general but likes body-worn cameras because they hold police officers accountable for their actions. Police Unions like them because they hold citizens accountable for their actions – in two small studies, civilian complaints against police officers declined by 60% to 88% after implementation of body-cams. Police officers like them because 98% or 99% of what the police do is overwhelming supportive of people in the community – saving drivers during auto accidents, breaking up domestic violence in homes, helping the homeless. The Department of Justice likes the cameras, as do elected officials. And they appear to work: one DOJ study found showed use of force by officers declined by 60%, and violence from citizens against police also declined. Prosecutors like video, as it helps establish and support criminal charges.
But, as in everything else, implementing body-worn video is not a panacea for improving policing. I’ve written earlier about the difficulties of implementing such a program, so I won’t rehash those here. And others have written about a variety of other problems such as the potential for “constant on” video cameras to create a surveillance state worse than even George Orwell envisioned.
Video Recognition and Indexing Software
Video video everywhere, underground and in the air.
Video cameras are becoming more and more ubiquitous. Most of the population now carries a video camera on their person with them all the time. Video surveillance cameras are in wide use in both private businesses and by public agencies such as Departments of Transportation. A billion people use YouTube, which has 4 billion views each day and 100 hours of video uploaded each second. And that’s just one video site!
But, like the thousands of unindexed photographs most people have lurking somewhere on hard drives and smart phones, video is hard to index and identify for future use. Content recognition software is still inadequate – basically under development.
Good content recognition software will serve a variety of useful purposes – it could detect unauthorized use of copyrighted material, could recognize individuals and objects thereby indexing the clips, and could form the basis for databases of video metadata. Such databases would useful for a variety of purposes such as indexing all that video of your family gatherings for the past 20 years, or storage and retrieval of police body-worn camera video. Video is quite useful in solving crimes – video from private companies were used to solve the Boston Marathon terrorism and police dashcam video caught Christopher Monfort, alleged killer of Seattle Police Officer Tim Brenton on October 31, 2009.
A Wise Official
Like audio or voice-recognition software, which is really still in its infancy, good video recognition software is a two edged sword, presenting privacy concerns as well as the useful purpose.
As always, these technology changes will outstrip the ability of our elected leaders to enact laws to deal with the resulting cultural and legal issues. We demonstrated that this past year with all the controversies surrounding Uber and other car-sharing services in cities across the globe. We see it in the constant struggle between public safety and privacy.
My final “wish” is for elected officials wise enough to embrace the positive power of new technologies, while controlling the negative implications. And having the wisdom to know the difference.